Dear cycling folk,
As we approach the season end and the potential of new model year bike releases, we wanted to draw your attention to some key things that are likely to make the remainder of 2021, 2022 (and probably 2023) a difficult period in the bike trade – and to ask for your patience.
Manufacturers are struggling.
It’s not their fault. The huge increase in demand for bikes and associated items (Smart trainers, group sets) – as well as many, many other items (garden furniture, BBQs, cement, timber + stuff made of carbon or aluminium) – has a huge knock-on effect further down the supply chain.
Ultimately raw materials are the issue.
While we as consumers tend to work on very short time frames (from minutes to hours, ‘in the moment’), the further you move up the supply chain the less flexible and the longer the timescales become in regard to adapting to large swings in demand.
A typical store like ours, works in time frames of 3 weeks to 3 months (at least we used to) with suppliers / manufacturers working 3 years out. Raw material suppliers – the one’s that have to get things out of the ground and process them – work in timescales of 30+ years!
Even before the blight of Covid, there was a shortage of Aluminium for example. This hasn’t gone away – it has worsened. Significantly. It’s why you can’t get your new groupset, aluminium bike or even a stem. And it’s not just aluminium.
The issue of supply is compounded by the fact that the problem is no longer localised. This is now Global. No more competing for materials / bikes from UK stocks – we are all now in the same pool and the water is drying out.
So, while we and our suppliers are doing our level best to forecast (and indeed taking larger financial risks) in order to secure you the bikes and parts that we think you will want, I would like to stress that we must all be prepared for any dates to slip in the coming months and years. We – like all those further along the supply chain – are working on estimates. Estimates based on the information currently available in the system. There are so many variables involved that nothing can be for certain.
We are in a chain that is hard to manage for everyone involved – not just us – and this makes delivery dates highly volatile. Compound this with worldwide transport problems, a shortage of shipping containers and space on aircraft and – coupled with the fallout surrounding Brexit – and some forecasters foresee that the carnage will continue until at least the first half of 2023 – Brace yourselves!
While in our particular locale things might seem to be getting rosier as regards the restrictions imposed by battling Covid, the same cannot be said elsewhere…..
To complicate a tricky situation further, there is also a continued upswing in Covid infection rates in Asia. This leads to the shutdown of industrial plants, seaports and ultimately national borders. Countries like (but not only) Malaysia, where Shimano has major production plants, are suffering increased restrictions, and even Taiwan is taking drastic measures which will affect the bike industry.
And it’s already happening:
As we move toward Winter, we are already being informed of shortages (think Spring 2022) of Smart Trainers and Smart bikes that will likely be on the ‘Most Wanted’ list this off-season – particularly given the supply issues last year. In addition, the shortages of Shimano and Sram components are very real. At the time of writing, lead times for some groupset components are a year away. Yes, really. A year. No components means fewer bikes as brands’ vie for stock – and this has a knock on effect on price too. Simple supply vs demand.
Bullet points here are:
1. Don’t hesitate
but
2.Prepare to wait!
If you’re hanging it out in hope, I’m afraid it’s likely to be in vain. Like I said – this isn’t going away. Obviously this can be viewed as a sales pitch – or it can be taken as it’s meant. To inform.
These are very uncertain times, and the best way to be successful in such circumstances is to pull together. Whatever your dealings with us – we are doing our utmost to keep things moving as swiftly as possible.
In addition to supply issues, the increase in demand and the fact that we (if we do say so ourselves) have managed to secure stock while others may not have – means we are busier than ever. Workshop slots, Bike Fitting and Custom bike building are all currently being booked well in advance.
The team are working tirelessly to get new bikes and products to customers as quickly as possible – they are going over and above. However, we politely ask that you give us a bit of breathing room with the above factors in mind. We would rather delay your bike a bit to give it the proper attention, to ensure that it is properly built and checked before you go out and ride it.
More importantly, we also need to look after each other.
Placing staff under greater pressure to deliver you something that – ultimately – could be delivered a few days later with little real impact on your life, can make a huge difference to the morale and wellbeing of our hard working and conscientious team.
We know you’re keen to get your new kit, but the repeated chasing of orders just slows things down. We genuinely want the collective experience to be a pleasant one 😉 Hurrying us up with daily (and sometimes more frequent) emails and calls will not speed anything along! For the tiny minority that choose to be aggressive, threatening and unpleasant – we’d rather just give you the refund.
Ultimately knowledge is power and I pen this by way of empowerment.
Too often, when we are in the dark as to what is actually happening, we make assumptions. Said assumptions largely only serve to create a negative internal narrative that skews our next interactions. So please know that we are doing our best – as we always do – and have that in mind if you need to contact us.
Cheers
Dave
